COLUMBIA, Mo. – University of Missouri experts have released the Show-Me 2025 Missouri Agricultural Outlook, which shows a mixed outlook for Missouri’s crops and livestock and the challenges and opportunities ahead.

The report is available at https://mizzou.us/MAO25.

“While corn production is set to decline with rising prices, soybean production is expected to increase despite falling prices,” said Danyelle Chinn, economist with the MU Rural and Farm Finance Policy Analysis Center (RaFF). “On the livestock side, declining beef cow inventories may push cattle prices higher, while increasing hog inventories could lower prices.” These trends emphasize the need for strategic decision-making in a shifting market, Chinn said.

“In addition, RaFF projected Missouri’s net farm income to decline by $697 million in 2024 and an additional $0.7 billion in 2025, primarily due to falling crop receipts and reduced crop insurance payments,” she said. “This highlights a challenging financial landscape for farmers.”

There is a silver lining, however, said RaFF Director Alejandro Plastina.

“The $391 million in economic assistance to Missouri crop producers through the American Relief Act of 2025 will inject the equivalent of 6% of the projected crop cash receipts, increasing the projected net farm income from all farm-related activities in 2025 by 14%,” Plastina said. “However, since the geographical distribution of payments will vary substantially across counties, it is important that crop producers calculate their own projected payments to plan their cash flow needs accordingly using RaFF’s decision tool.” The spreadsheet tool is available for download at https://mizzou.us/AFA25calc.

Key insights

• Missouri farm income is projected to decline to $2.9 billion in 2025 as lower crop and livestock receipts outweigh reductions in production expenses.

• Missouri’s production expenses are projected to decline by 3% in 2025, to $11.7 billion, driven by further reductions in feed and seed costs, fertilizer, pesticides, fuel and oils, labor, interest rates and overhead expenses.

• Missouri’s crop sector faces mixed prospects for the coming year. Corn production is expected to decline, although prices are projected to rise due to market conditions. In contrast, soybean production is set to increase despite a decrease in prices. Other crops, such as cotton, hay and rice, may see reduced production levels, with mixed price trends.

• Missouri’s livestock sectors are also a mixed bag: Beef cattle inventories are expected to decline, driving prices higher, while hog inventories are rising, potentially lowering prices. The dairy sector faces challenges from lower milk prices and a decline in milk cow inventory, while turkeys and broilers are projected to see steady growth, with mixed price signals. Egg production is projected to increase, causing a decline in egg prices.

• Total farm cash receipts are projected to decline in 2025, reflecting lower crop prices for certain commodities and adjustments in livestock revenues. The drop in cash receipts will likely pressure farm finances, emphasizing the need for strategic planning to maintain profitability.

Missouri’s agriculture sector generates nearly $94 billion each year, making it a cornerstone of the state’s economy, Chinn said.

“This report highlights the importance of supporting the agriculture industry, which is essential to both the state’s economic stability and global food security,” she said. “It provides a roadmap for understanding the challenges and opportunities ahead for Missouri’s agriculture industry.”

Contact: Danyelle Chinn, 573-882-7997