COLUMBIA, Mo. – It’s still a job hunter’s market out there, but landing the right position may be harder than it looks in 2024, according to University of Missouri researchers.

An aging population and slow-growing labor force give workers the advantage as they seek jobs. There are currently 10 job openings in Missouri for every six unemployed workers, said Alan Spell, assistant extension professor of community and regional economics at the University of Missouri.

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In a 2023 Missouri Economic Research and Information Center survey, 61% of employers said they are experiencing a shortage of skilled applicants, and 80% of employers say they have to hire less-experienced workers and train them — indicating that workers, indeed, have the advantage. Among employers surveyed, 65% identified top shortages of skilled applicants in patient care, 65% in skilled trades and 55% in manufacturing.

But this good news for workers comes with important caveats, Spell said.

“Employers are focused on hiring and holding on to skilled workers, so it doesn’t mean they will take just anyone,” he said. “Skills, not degrees, matter most at entry- and middle-level positions while higher-level positions need skills but often degrees and industry experience.”

Job projections out to 2030 show that many lower-wage occupations, such as food service and transportation jobs, will grow at high rates with many openings.

While there will be high demand to replenish these kinds of jobs lost during the COVID-19 pandemic, growth is also predicted in middle-to-higher skilled jobs in health care, management, computer science and business and finance. This demand will include management jobs open to experienced professionals with strong leadership skills.

How can Missouri grow its workforce to meet these critical workforce needs?

Spell said economists and workforce development experts offer these suggestions:

• Continue to improve the delivery of adult training programs to assist the unemployed and economically disadvantaged so they can find employment.
• Welcome international legal migrants.
• Help to keep more older adults in the workforce with upskilling and flexible labor options.
• Ensure we have ample child care and eldercare resources so labor force participation can remain high.

What should June 2024 high school graduates be thinking about for long-range career opportunities?

“Do what you enjoy, but demonstratable skills are going to be key for career progression,” Spell said. “Keep in mind that top job prospects are predicted to be in health care and STEM occupations. Hiring may have cooled a bit in recent months but – apart from deep recessions – it will be a worker’s market for years to come.”

Sidebar: Trends for Missouri high school grads

A review of high school graduates over the last decade shows a significant uptick in graduates reporting they are going directly into employment and a reduction in those choosing two- and four-year educational pathways:

• 28% are employed, compared to 2012 low of 15%.
• Nearly 34% are at four-year institutions, compared to 2008 high of 40%.
• 22% are at two-year institutions, compared to 2012 high of 32%.
• Military and unknown have remained fairly static at 3% and 10%, respectively.

Source: Missouri Department of Elementary and Secondary Education, compiled by Mark White, clinical associate professor, University of Illinois.